The ongoing war in Sudan has caused immense suffering and devastation for the people of Sudan. However, the impact of this conflict is not limited to Sudan alone. According to the International Monetary Fund’s deputy director for Africa, Catherine Pattillo, the war is likely to have a heavy economic toll on neighboring countries as well.
In an interview in Washington, Pattillo expressed her concern for the neighboring countries, stating that “what is going on there for the people in Sudan is just so heart wrenching and devastating. For all of the neighboring countries, too.” She further added that many of these neighboring countries are already facing their own challenges and the influx of refugees, security issues, and trade disruptions from the war in Sudan will only add to their struggles.
The IMF’s regional outlook for sub-Saharan Africa, which is set to be published on Friday, predicts that countries like Central African Republic, Chad, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and South Sudan will be particularly affected by the conflict in Sudan.
For South Sudan, the situation has become even more dire after the loss of one of its main sources of income in February. The country’s oil export pipeline, which was damaged in Sudan, is crucial for transporting its crude oil abroad. Oil accounts for around 90% of South Sudan’s exports, making it a vital source of revenue for the landlocked country.
The war in Sudan has been ongoing since April 2023 between the army, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of his former deputy, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti. The conflict has resulted in tens of thousands of lives lost, according to the United Nations. More than 10.7 million people have been displaced within Sudan, and an additional 2.3 million have fled to neighboring countries.
The war has also exacerbated food insecurity, with a famine being declared in July in the Zamzam camp for displaced people near the town of el-Facher in Darfur. “You could think of Sudan [and] also some of the security issues in the Sahelian countries, also affecting growth,” Pattillo said, highlighting the impact of internal conflicts on economic growth.
In addition to internal conflicts, external conflicts such as the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are also contributing to the economic challenges faced by African countries. Pattillo noted that these conflicts are driving up the cost of food, fertilizer, and energy.
The IMF also highlighted the negative impact of rising protectionism on economic growth in Africa. As trade tensions continue to rise between the world’s three most powerful trading blocs – the United States, Europe, and China – African countries are facing tariff hikes and disruptions in trade.
The economic slowdown in developed countries and China also remains a major challenge for African countries. The IMF predicts a growth rate of 4.2% for sub-Saharan Africa next year, slightly better than the 3.6% growth expected this year.
Despite these challenges, there is still hope for economic growth in Africa. The IMF’s report also noted that many African countries have implemented economic reforms and diversification efforts, which have helped to improve their economic resilience. Additionally, the continent’s young and growing population presents opportunities for economic growth and development.
In conclusion, while the war in Sudan continues to cause immense suffering and economic damage, it is important to recognize the impact it has on neighboring countries as well. The international community must come together to support these countries and find a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Sudan. With continued efforts towards economic reforms and diversification, Africa has the potential to overcome these challenges and achieve sustainable economic growth.
